Economic headwinds and geopolitical tensions are being tempered through the resilience and strategic adaptability of this year’s Australian public M&A market, new research from a BigLaw firm has found.
For its report, M&A 2026 Outlook, national law firm Corrs Chambers Westgarth reviewed data from a sample of 57 takeover bids announced between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025 with deal values of over $25 million each, and schemes of arrangement involving an Australian-listed target.
The report found that public deal activity has resurged in the resources, technology, and financial services sectors. Additionally, it found that gold and critical minerals have been influenced by local regulatory and economic conditions – with gold surpassing US$4,000 per ounce in October 2025, prompting a wave of M&A activity among gold producers. In addition, resources continued to lead M&A activity, making up 28 per cent of deals – largely dominated by gold and copper deals.
Predictions for 2026
The firm expects that a wave of strategic consolidation will surface in 2026, with energy and resources continuing to drive momentum. It also found a greater focus by dealmakers on technology integration, supply chain resilience, defence-linked opportunities amid shifting policy and international developments.
The firm’s head of corporate, Sandy Mak (pictured), noted the rebound of global M&A in the latter half of 2025, despite a “shaky start”. Mak said this reflects the adaptability and acceptance of the geopolitical landscape by dealmakers, revealing strategic acquisitions across core sectors in Australia.
“‘Resilient yet cautious’ best describes our outlook for 2026. While strategic opportunities remain, regulatory, policy and geopolitical factors will influence deal success and structure,” she said.
Mak predicted a likely activity rise in defence and defence-adjacent technologies for 2026 due to increasing geopolitical tensions, “increased government investment and the transition of AUKUS from policy to industrial implementation”.
Today’s M&A environment
Based on its findings, the report showed a strong interest in fintech, AI, and digital health, “as firms seek greater efficiency and competitiveness,” through their interest in technology-driven companies. In addition, the data revealed the prominent role that shareholder activism will play in deal dynamics. While resources M&A will remain a key driver, foreign direct investment (particularly from the US) is projected to rise; US bidders were found to have made up 16 per cent of total deal value. Based on its findings, domestic bidders made up 59 per cent of all bidders, in contrast with last year’s trend.
The report also found that deal volume fell slightly to 56 transactions, down from 59 in 2024. Despite the decline, it remained the second-highest level in over a decade, with total deal value rising to $47 billion, it revealed.
In addition, schemes made up most deals, with 71 per cent of deals structured as schemes, and all transactions over $500 million were found to be structured as schemes. Further, the findings revealed that 67 per cent of deals used cash consideration, which was the highest in five years. In addition, the firm revealed an increase in the average deal value, which sat at $839 million, up from $782 million in 2024.
Two categories dominate today’s M&A environment, the firm’s partner, Adam Foreman, advised: “Half of the deals proceed quickly, smoothly and without incident. The other half take much longer to finalise, face more obstacles, and raise complex issues for both target and bidder.”
Foreman attributed strategy as a determining factor in deal speed. “Pre-bid support, being clear about your intentions and remembering to manage your own stakeholders are critical for bidders. Targets need to focus on setting clear boundaries to manage bidders and better anticipating regulatory and legal risks, which are increasingly relevant,” he said.
Carlos Tse is a graduate journalist writing for Accountants Daily, HR Leader, Lawyers Weekly.
