Mining drives Australia’s M&A rebound amid global volatility

Will Heath, a corporate M&A partner at Mallesons, provided deeper insight into the strategic drivers and regulatory landscape currently shaping the M&A market.

“What’s striking isn’t just the value of the announced deals, but the willingness of companies to pursue sizable strategic acquisitions despite a backdrop of trade tensions, military conflict and market volatility,” Heath said.

“Regulatory scrutiny remains intense, but it’s no deterrent to quality transactions.

“Mining accounted for more than half of Australian public M&A transactions in the first half of 2026.

“Activity is occurring across a range of minerals, including gold, bauxite, and critical minerals. Hard asset deals also remain attractive with the two biggest deals by value being the acquisition of Qube Holdings and the off-market takeover of Atlas Arteria.”

Commenting on M&A, corporate M&A partners Anthony Boogert and Nicola Charlston analyse broader market sentiment to understand the global landscape.

VIEW ALL

“If you had to sum up the global M&A market in mid-2026 in a single phrase, it would be ‘back, but selective’.

“Global M&A deal volume is up roughly 58 per cent over the past year, and the headline holds up when you look under the bonnet: deals over US$1 billion up 44 per cent on the first four months of 2025.

“The mood is noticeably brighter in the US than in Europe, where geopolitical noise and slower growth are keeping a lid on appetite,” they said.

In recent times, several experts have outlined the typical hurdles being encountered by M&A lawyers, with geopolitical pressures being at the forefront.

Talking to Lawyers Weekly, Heath indicated that despite the opportunities presented by a more selective M&A market, law firms will need to continue evolving to navigate increasing complexity and pace, with sector expertise, regulatory insight, technology and client service remaining critical differentiators.

Managing risk and deal certainty in a volatile M&A environment

Heath noted the important role that lawyers play, particularly as global issues and uncertainties become more prevalent.

“Geopolitical risks and volatility are the new norm; they are front of mind for boards and investors,” Heath said.

“M&A lawyers play a critical role in helping their clients analyse all dimensions of deal certainty in this environment.

“This includes how regulators and governments might respond, whether key investors will be supportive of the deal, and what might happen if a bidder suffers buyer’s remorse.”

The sectors, circumstances, and capabilities driving selective M&A activity

According to Heath, sector dynamics and deal-specific circumstances are key to understanding where M&A activity is returning and where it remains subdued.

“Sectors and circumstances are two key reasons for the market being ‘back’ in some areas, and not in others,” Heath said.

“Resources, infrastructure and other hard asset deals featured strongly in 2026 H1, including our work on the Regis/Vault gold transaction and the South32/Alcoa aluminium portfolio deal.

“Circumstances matter too, and uncertainty can be an advantage: IFM’s unsolicited hostile takeover bid was launched for our client Atlas Arteria at a time when the Middle East conflict, foreign exchange and interest rate movements turned in IFM’s favour.”

Heath believed that the ability to respond quickly also depends on having the right breadth and depth of expertise behind the M&A team.

“Firms don’t just need M&A specialists, they also need a deep bench of lawyers who can provide sector-specific advice and who can move nimbly when a deal window opens, or a hostile bid lands in their client’s inbox,” Heath said.

“Clients also need cross-practice advice, such as tax specialists to advise foreign buyers on plans for a possible exit when doing a take-private.”

The growing role of regulatory approvals in M&A

Heath noted that proactive engagement with legal counsel on regulatory strategy has become a fundamental component of pre-deal planning in the current environment.

“Clients who are considering doing M&A are having early, confidential, candid discussions with us about their M&A pipeline and the potential impact of regulatory approvals.

“This helps a client understand not only whether the next deal is executable, but also whether longer-term follow-on deals or strategic steps will be achievable.”

Homing in on Mallesons’ lawyers, Heath highlighted the proactive nature that is necessary for lawyers to have knowledge of the changing protocols.

“It’s also increasingly important for M&A teams in law firms to have regulatory experts who know the rules and the regulators,” Heath said.

“Our lawyers lead peak law reform committees which engage with government and regulators ahead of rule changes so that we know what’s around the corner.

“We also have lawyers who have worked in government and regulators and can demystify regulatory decision making for clients.”

Mining, critical minerals, and the future of Australian resources M&A

Beyond regulatory navigation, Mallesons is also leveraging deep sector expertise to capitalise on shifting trends in the resource sector.

“The emergence of critical minerals transactions highlights new opportunities for mining companies and investors as these minerals will support the energy transition, the growth of data centres, and much more,” Heath said.

“There are also opportunities for scale and growth in more ‘traditional’ minerals, highlighted by the Vault Minerals takeover proposals in the gold sector and the South32/Alcoa aluminium portfolio deal.

“We bring experts from around Australia – including our mining law gurus in Perth and Brisbane – to our transaction teams to ensure our clients have the best sector-specific and technical advice on complex issues such as state agreements, native title and environmental risk.”

What’s next?

“The complexity and pace of M&A work inflates each year, and law firms need to be constantly evolving to support clients,” Heath said.

“Firms wanting to differentiate in our highly competitive M&A market need to be exceptional in a number of areas.

“This includes having top-quality sector and regulatory experts on transaction teams, supporting all team members to use AI to drive new thinking and encourage efficiencies, and putting together teams who will work urgently and resiliently in the face of considerable market volatility and shifting regulatory settings.”