AI is coming for BigLaw grads: What shrinking intakes mean for Australia’s future lawyers

While graduate recruitment numbers fluctuate from year to year, the significance of MinterEllison’s announcement lies in its reasoning.

The big four firm’s chief people officer, Rachel Banks, explained that the decision to cut graduate hiring highlights how rapidly AI is reshaping the legal profession from the ground up, with technology increasingly taking over the routine work once used to train junior lawyers.

“Responsible use of AI is improving efficiency in some of the more routine work graduates traditionally start on, while demand continues to shift towards complex matters. That combination has led us to take a more targeted approach to intake this year,” Banks told The Australian Financial Review.

As the legal sector begins to absorb the implications of the announcement, the move has sent shockwaves through the profession, raising serious questions about what a shrinking graduate market could mean for aspiring lawyers – and whether other BigLaw firms are now preparing to follow suit.

The end of the traditional graduate pathway?

VIEW ALL

As one of Australia’s largest firms scales back its graduate intake in response to the rise of AI, law students are being pushed into an uneasy scramble, watching the once-stable vision of life after university shift and unravel in real time.

Liberty Papas, a recent graduate and law clerk at Divorce Legal, described this reality as “naturally creating uncertainty” for many law students, who now find themselves grappling with growing doubt within an already intensely competitive graduate market.

As a response to the news and the possibility that other major firms may follow suit, she explained that this shift is likely to prompt many law students to begin questioning the once-clear pathway into practice and what it now means for their future prospects.

“For many students, the traditional graduate pathway has long been presented as the expected route into practice, particularly when thinking about ‘BigLaw’ or larger firms,” Papas said.

“When these firms begin signalling reductions in graduate intakes, students inevitably begin questioning what that means for their future prospects.”

Due to these shifts, Papas explained that this climate can quietly intensify pressure on law students, as they begin to question whether their grades and experience truly measure up, often falling into constant comparison with their peers in greater lengths than already.

“I think it can amplify pressure around grades, work experience, and whether students have ‘done enough’ to be competitive,” Papas said.

“I studied my degree entirely online and entered the profession without extensive legal experience compared to many of my peers, so I understand how easy it is to compare your pathway to others and feel like you may somehow be behind.”

Papas also stressed that fears other firms may follow suit in reducing graduate intakes could see law students feel increasing pressure to become more career-conscious earlier in their degrees, as an already intense culture of competitive grades and early experience tightens further.

“I think students may feel pressure to become ‘career conscious’ much earlier in their degrees,” Papas said.

“There is already a strong culture around maintaining competitive grades, securing legal experience early and building a résumé from first year onwards. If opportunities become more limited, students may feel they need to distinguish themselves even further.”

While acknowledging that these pressures are real, Papas suggested they also open the door to rethinking what a successful legal career can look like, highlighting the many meaningful pathways into practice that extend far beyond the traditional graduate model emphasised at university.

“That being said, I also think it challenges the profession to broaden the conversation around what a ‘successful’ legal career can look like. There are many meaningful pathways into practice beyond the traditional graduate model that is emphasised at university,” Papas said.

The law graduate crunch begins

With some firms signalling potential reductions in graduate intakes, questions are growing about what this could mean for law students entering the profession, with law students becoming increasingly concerned about a shifting and unpredictable job market.

The uncertainty is prompting law schools to confront both the immediate pressure facing students and the longer-term task of maintaining confidence in graduate career pathways.

Professor Fleur Johns, head of school and dean of Sydney Law School, acknowledged growing anxiety among law students as market conditions shift, noting that universities are acutely aware of the pressure and are actively working to support students through this period of uncertainty.

“It means that law students are experiencing anxiety about changing market conditions; we are very conscious of that and taking steps to ensure students feel supported,” Johns said.

In response to growing concern about the graduate job market, Jake Goldenfein, associate professor at the University of Melbourne Law School, shared how the shifting landscape is pushing universities to rethink what it takes to keep law students competitive both now and into the future.

“With big changes coming in the employment landscape, we are thinking deeply about what it takes to make law students competitive now and in the future,” Goldenfein said.

With concerns that an overreliance on technical systems may quickly become obsolete, he said universities are instead placing greater emphasis on strengthening critical thinking and deep analytical capability, skills he said remain central to what law firms value in graduates.

“We don’t want to overly focus on the use of technical systems that will inevitably become obsolete, but we still need to prepare students for a different kind of workplace that values different kinds of skills,” Goldenfein said.

“For us, that means making sure students have extremely sharp critical capacity and understand the hierarchies of knowledge that underpin good legal analysis.”

However, Johns remained confident that graduates will continue to access a broad range of career opportunities and strong employment outcomes, pointing to legal education’s ongoing focus on transferable human skills that hold their value across shifting conditions.

“Nevertheless, we are confident that students graduating from Sydney Law School in coming years will continue to enjoy a wide range of career options and attain sector-leading levels of graduate employment,” Johns said.

“The capabilities for complex problem solving, human communication, discerning judgement, leadership, and legal innovation that students can build in this law school put them in a very strong position to weather these changing conditions successfully.”

Is it time for a backup plan?

As the fight for traditional BigLaw graduate roles intensifies in the age of AI, many law students are now confronting a difficult question: do they need a backup plan – and what does a successful legal career look like beyond the profession’s most traditional pathways?

Papas explained how the race to secure a coveted BigLaw role can become so consuming for law students that missing out on a clerkship or graduate offer can leave them questioning their future in the profession altogether.

“Earlier in my degree, I absolutely felt that pressure [to work in BigLaw]. I think many students do,” Papas said.

“There can be a tendency at university to become very focused on one outcome – securing a clerkship, receiving a graduate offer, or following a particular pathway. When that doesn’t happen immediately, it can feel like you have somehow failed.”

Although she acknowledged once feeling self-conscious for not following a traditional path, Papas shared how her view of what a “successful” legal career looks like after university gradually shifted away from the traditional BigLaw benchmark.

“Over time, though, my perspective shifted because my own pathway looked different. My opportunity came through genuine relationships, mentorship, and practical exposure,” Papas said.

“At the time, I remember feeling self-conscious that I had not followed the same trajectory as many of my peers. Looking back now, I realise that experience, networking and people who believe in you can be just as important as academic results.”

However, Papas is not alone in this shift in thinking, noting how more students are now viewing alternative pathways as direct routes to real responsibility and hands-on experience, often accelerating the development of practical skills well ahead of traditional graduate programs.

“I also think students are becoming more open to alternative pathways,” Papas said.

“Boutique firms, government positions, community legal centres and specialised practices can provide earlier responsibility and more hands-on exposure.

“In many cases, students may actually gain practical experience sooner and develop stronger professional skills than they would through a larger graduate structure.”

That growing shift in mindset was echoed by the College of Law career adviser Susan Pincus, who said the changing legal landscape is encouraging students to look beyond the traditional BigLaw route and better understand the breadth of opportunities a law degree can offer.

“Law students need to be more informed and aware of other options beyond the more traditional pathways of joining big law firms,” Pincus said.

“These may include alternatives such as government, smaller firms, in-house legal counsel, new law, or even doing an overseas stint.”

Beyond conventional legal practice, Pincus also highlighted how legal training is increasingly becoming a launchpad into a wide range of adjacent industries and emerging career paths.

“In addition, there are a number of career options that draw off a law degree, such as adjacent roles in legal policy and law reform, consulting, entrepreneurial start-ups, etc,” Pincus said.

Johns also agreed that shifts in large firm hiring are likely to shape how students approach early-career decisions, particularly as competition for graduate roles continues to evolve.

However, she welcomed this change in mindset, noting that a broader outlook may better reflect the reality of legal careers, given that only a relatively small proportion of graduates remain in “BigLaw” long term.

“Law students may well become more inclined to look outside large commercial law firms for graduate employment and early-career workplace training opportunities,” Johns said.

“Considering the relatively small percentage of law graduates who actually pursue careers in ‘BigLaw’ long term, a shift towards a wider-angle perspective could be a good thing.”

She explained that a wider lens on early-career options could be highly beneficial, helping students recognise the full diversity of pathways across the legal profession and beyond, rather than focusing solely on the traditional commercial law trajectory.

“In the best-case scenario, law graduates will become more aware of, and inspired by, the many different paths that law alumni take towards fulfilling, successful careers in a range of legal and non-legal fields,” Johns said.

Pincus also suggested that, rather than viewing the changes as purely negative, the shifting graduate market could instead serve as a “wake-up call” for law students – one that pushes students to become more adaptable, resourceful and forward-thinking in an industry undergoing rapid transformation.

“In some ways, this can be seen as a wake-up call to students that they need to be versatile and resourceful to ensure they do not get left behind,” Pincus said.

Could other firms follow?

The million-dollar question on everyone’s mind since MinterEllison scaled back its latest graduate intake due to AI is whether other BigLaw firms will follow suit.

Against that backdrop, and while only time will tell, Goldenfein suggested it is “very possible”, explaining how the “economics of the workplace in the context of AI are still taking shape”.

While university is often viewed through the lens of BigLaw preparation, he stressed that a legal education is not simply a pipeline into large commercial firms, but a foundation for a wide range of professional pathways.

“But law school is not only about preparing to work at a BigLaw firm,” Goldenfein said.

“There are a range of employment pathways that inevitably involve engagement with AI in diverse ways and for different reasons.”

“We are committed to giving our students the best grounding, whatever path they choose to take.”

Pincus pointed to a growing shift among national law firms prioritising graduates from an “AI-native” generation – where adaptability, digital fluency and the ability to work alongside emerging technologies are fast becoming essential hiring traits.

“Sam Nickless, Gilbert + Tobin’s CEO, states ‘Securing top talent early, who have come through in an ‘AI-native’ world, is a priority for us’,” Pincus said.

“Their firm looks for graduates with ‘raw smarts plus curiosity’, particularly with the ability to adapt to a rapidly changing world.”