This lack of confidence, he told Lawyers Weekly, is driving lower-than-expected business activity.

“Globally, we are seeing growing economic uncertainty – driven by recession risks, trade tensions, and shifting political dynamics,” he said.

“This is beginning to weigh on dealmakers’ minds, which is impacting on M&A volumes, and for our financial services clients, it is impacting on their willingness to launch new products.”

The recent election campaign in Australia, “coupled with a general malaise”, Griffin went on, is tempered by the reality that clients are still active – “there remains deals to be done and work to be undertaken”.

Looking ahead to the 2025–26 financial year, Johnson Winter Slattery partner Andrew Williams and consultant Dr Pamela Hanrahan suggested that the drift from public to private markets that has the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) worried will continue, “and we predict more take-private transactions, particularly if institutional investors are unhappy with the level of oversight and influence they have over listed entities”.

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“We expect to see IPOs stay low, and there may be more activity in the private equity secondary market, depending on valuations and interest rates. Our clients are working their way through the recent merger reforms, and we expect climate and the energy transition to remain a key issue, particularly with the introduction of the new mandatory climate reporting regime,” the pair said.

“As the trade wars begin to bite and supply chains pressures mount, we may see more activity in the distressed company space.”

With the new Federal Parliament being constituted, “we don’t see much prospect for meaningful regulatory reform, and so compliance – and directors’ potential liability for compliance and disclosure failures associated with high-risk areas like workforce issues and cyber security – will be front of mind”.

Notwithstanding the difficult conditions, Griffin said, he does expect to see some growing optimism as the new financial year gets into full swing.

“The headline challenges will remain, including the ‘regulatory ratchet’ that sees increasing regulation over time,” he said.

“The continued ratcheting and burdening of business with new or expanded regulations (such as the expansion of the AML/CTF regime) means higher costs on business, higher barriers to entry for start-ups in certain industries, and as a result, less funds available for productive activities, including acquisitions and innovation.”

This all said, Griffin noted that from a law firm perspective, such an environment offers great opportunities, even amid the challenges.

“Well-run businesses can out-manoeuvre their peers, and the market challenges will favour lawyers in particular areas such as regulatory,” he said.